Tropical Storm LINFA Advisory nie., 11.10.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 17W (LINFA) WARNING NR
005//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 17W (LINFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.
A 102350Z GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION
WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LLCC WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 40
KTS BASED ON A 101824Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 42 KTS AND A 102330Z
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T2.7 (39 KTS). DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT, WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), AND LOW
(<10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ESTABLISH AN OVERALL FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. TS 17W IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE
NORTH
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 17W IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED JUST OFF THE COAST OF VIETNAM
AND SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL SOUTH OF DA NANG, VIETNAM PRIOR TO TAU 12.
AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW-LEVEL STR. TS 17W WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT
MAKES LANDFALL AND BEGINS TO TRACK ACROSS THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF
VIETNAM. COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING VWS, DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED
BY TAU 36. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET ENSEMBLE MEAN AND JGSM
SOLUTIONS, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A 60 NM SPREAD AT TAU 24. THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE
ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.//
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