Tropical Storm FRANCISCO Advisory wto., 06.08.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNING
NR 18//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 61 NM
EAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TS 09W
REMAINS TIGHTLY WRAPPED. HOWEVER, IT NO LONGER HAS A DEFINED EYE
FEATURE DUE TO LAND INTERACTION WITH KYUSHU. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 052330Z HIMAWARI
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A NOTCH FEATURE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 60 KNOTS IS BASED ON A WEAKENING TREND OVER
LAND. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS TS 09W IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS). TS 09W ALSO HAS EXCELLENT
POLEWARD BUT A LIMITED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. TS 09W IS
CURRENTLY OVER LAND, HOWEVER, THE SURROUNDING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE (28 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS). TS 09W IS
TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 09W WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 12 WHILE IT
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. SHORTLY AFTER
TAU 06, TS 09W WILL TRACK BACK OVER WATER WHICH WILL SLOW THE
WEAKENING AND ALLOW TS 09W TO MAKE LANDFALL JUST EAST OF BUSAN WITH
AN INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS. AN APPROACHING WEST TO EAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HELP TO ACCELERATE TS 09W NORTHWARD AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 24. BY TAU 36, TS 09W WILL
INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT). TS 09W WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72 AS IT ACCELERATES EASTWARD
AND MAINTAINS AN INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
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