Tropical Storm SAOLA Advisory pt., 27.10.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 27W (SAOLA)
WARNING NR 30//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 27W (SAOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 306 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING, TIGHTLY-WRAPPED SHALLOW BANDING AND A MORE DEFINED CENTER.
A 262138Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE INDICATES DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING,
LOCATED PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, NOW WRAPPING INTO
THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW, TAPPING INTO THE
WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH, AND A DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES AND
A 26/2138Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 48 KNOTS. TS 27W IS TRACKING POLEWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TOWARD A BREAK SITUATED NEAR OKINAWA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 27W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 AND IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE NORTH OF
OKINAWA. NEAR TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 36. TS
27W WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS BY
TAU 24 UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. AS THE SYSTEM RECURVES AND TRACKS
SOUTH OF JAPAN, INCREASING VWS AND ENTRAINMENT OF COOLER, DRIER AIR
WILL SERVE TO STEADILY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 48, THE GLOBAL
MODELS DEVELOP A STRONG COLD SURGE EVENT OVER AND TO THE SOUTH OF
MAINLAND JAPAN, WHICH WILL SERVE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. TS
27W WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS
AND BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL GUIDANCE AFTER TAU 48, THERE IS MODERATE
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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