Tropical Storm TWENTYTHREE Advisory pon., 09.10.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (TWENTYTHREE)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
     TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (TWENTYTHREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF BANDING CONVECTION LOOSELY
ORGANIZED AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, BUT CONTINUES TO
SHOW MODERATE IMPROVEMENT OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN BOTH THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF
25 KNOTS WHICH ARE BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25
KNOTS) AND LOCAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM NEARBY ISLANDS AND SHIPS
TRANSITING THROUGH THE REGION. OBSERVATIONS FURTHER AWAY AND
NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM INDICATE MUCH HIGHER WIND SPEEDS AND
ASSOCIATED SEAS DUE TO THE NORTHEASTERLY SURGE FUNNELING THROUGH THE
LUZON STRAIT, BUT AT THIS TIME ARE NOT WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM
INDUCING STEADY EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE RAPID
WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION, WIND SHEAR IS
RELATIVELY FAVORABLE AND SHOWING SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT. SSTS IN THE
REGION ARE ALSO FAVORABLE NEAR 29 TO 30 CELSIUS. CURRENTLY TD 23W IS
TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF A WELL-
ESTABLISHED MID-TO-LOW LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE
EAST CHINA SEA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
     A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
     B. TD 23W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWEST, GUIDED BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. FURTHER
CONSOLIDATION IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH TD 23W
REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS AS UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE OVER THE VERY WARM WATER OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE SYSTEM, EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHERN SHORELINE OF CHINA. LANDFALL
IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NORTHERN REGION OF VIETNAM JUST AFTER TAU
24. TD 23W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK INLAND AND FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU
48. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BOTH TRACK
AND SPEED, LENDING OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK.//
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