Tropical Storm BUALOI Advisory wto., 22.10.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 506 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A HIGHLY SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A 10 NM EYE AND
CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL POSITION. BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T6.0 (115 KTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES, ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102 KTS) FROM
RJTD, AND A SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 120 KTS, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 115 KTS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. TY 22W REMAINS IN
AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (28-29
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). THERE IS NEAR-RADIAL
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW; HOWEVER, A TUTT CELL TO THE SOUTHWEST MAY
INHIBIT STRONG DEVELOPMENT OF OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTH. TY 22W IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 22W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 36. AROUND TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE
RIDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 48 WITH LOW VWS AND WARM
SST. HOWEVER, THE TUTT CELL TO THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
UNTIL TAU 72, INHIBITING SUBSTANTIAL INTENSIFICATION AND OFFSETTING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT WILL BE ENHANCED AS THE SYSTEM TAPS INTO THE
TROUGH. AFTER TAU 48, TY 22W WILL SHIFT TO A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
TRACK AS THE SYSTEM RECURVES. NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, LENDING GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 48 REMAINS 60 NM AND INCREASES TO 130 NM AT
TAU 72 AFTER THE RECURVE. THE ONE OUTLIER IS NAVGEM TO THE EAST. THE
SPEED OF THE SYSTEM IS SIMILAR IN ALL MODELS; HOWEVER, THERE ARE
SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN THE TIMING OF THE RECURVE.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 22W BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND
TRACKS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHEAR THE SYSTEM WITH VWS VALUES
GREATER THAN 40 KTS, OFFSETTING THE ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW, THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKENING TY 22W. THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD
EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD AS IT COMPLETES ETT. BY TAU 96, NUMERICAL MODELS
DIVERGE TO 295 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD WHEN ETT IS COMPLETED. DESPITE
THIS, THERE IS HIGH OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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