Tropical Storm KONG-REY Advisory pon., 01.10.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 30W (KONG-REY) WARNING NR 13//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
  TYPHOON (TY) 30W (KONG-REY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 785 NM SOUTHEAST
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDS CONTINUED TO DEEPEN AND WRAP TIGHTER
INTO - AND COMPLETELY SURROUND - A TIGHT CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF A
WELL-DEFINED 12-NM EYE IN THE 010000Z 1-KM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR A MINOR TILT. THIS POSITION LINED UP WELL WITH A 302207Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS IS
BASED ON A BLEND OF AGENCY AND ADT DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T5.0/90 KNOTS
AND T5.5/102 KNOTS, RESPECTIVELY AND REFLECTS THE IMPROVED STATE OF
THE SYSTEM. UPPER AND LOW LEVEL ANALYSES INDICATE THE SYSTEM REMAINS
IN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-20 KT)
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY EXCELLENT RADIAL
OUTFLOW AND WARM (30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
PHILIPPINE SEA. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STR TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 30W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STR. THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AND ALLOW
FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 130 KNOTS (SUPER TYPHOON)
BY TAU 36. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND DIMINISHING OUTFLOW WILL
CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN, DOWN TO 85 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH MINOR SPREADING
IN THE ENVELOPE, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TY KONG-REY 30W WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY ROUND THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND TRACK MORE POLEWARD, PASSING
APPROXIMATELY 145 NM WEST OF OKINAWA SHORTLY AFTER TAU 96. HIGH VWS
AND REDUCED OUTFLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THE SYSTEM, DOWN TO 75 KTS
BY TAU 120. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF ON
THE LEFT AND CTCX ON THE RIGHT MARGIN OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE THAT
QUITE EVENLY SPREADS OUT TO OVER 350 NM AT TAU 120. IN VIEW OF THIS,
THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST THAT IS LAID VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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