Tropical Storm HAGUPIT Advisory so., 01.08.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING
NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 394
NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 18 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED, RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY DEEP CONVECTION EXTENDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 312133Z MHS 89 GHZ  MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING IN FROM THE SOUTH. PAIRED WITH THE MSI, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KTS HEDGED BETWEEN CURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T1.0 (25 KTS) BY PGTW/RJTD AND A 010132Z ASCAT-B PASS WHICH SHOWS A SWATH OF 30-34KT WINDS LOCATED TO THE EAST. TD 03W IS CURRENTLY WITHIN AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND VERY WARM (31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TD 03W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS
THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TD 03W WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY AS IT TRANSITS OVER WARM WATERS,
 REACHING PEAK INTENSITY (45 KTS) AROUND TAU 36. AFTER THIS,
INCREASING VWS (20-25 KTS) WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR, THE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL JUST SOUTH OF SHANGHAI
AROUND TAU 72.
   C. FOLLOWING LANDFALL, TD 03W WILL BEGIN WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING
 VWS AND FRICTIONAL LAND EFFECTS. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM
WILL RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. ALONG THIS
TRACK, TD 03W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL JET FLOW AND BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 96.
ETT COMPLETION IS ANTICIPATED BY TAU 120, IF NOT SOONER.NUMERICAL MODELS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAVGEM SOLUTION LOCATED
WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS, ARE IN OVERALL FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72. THE NAVGEM SOLUTION SHOWS A NORTHWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 24.
IN THE EXTENDED RANGE, THERE IS INCREASED SPREAD IN THE MODELS
DUE TO VARIATIONS IN THE TIMING OF THE RECURVE. OVERALL, THERE
IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS PLACED
NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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