Tropical Storm FAXAI Advisory śro., 04.09.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (FOURTEEN) WARNING
NR 10//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 14W (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 402
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ENEWETAK, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE EAST. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE USING MSI AND A 032319Z
METOP-B ASCAT PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KNOTS
ACCORDING TO PERSISTENT DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5 FROM ALL AGENCIES,
CORROBORATED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS. THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN
A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT, GIVEN ITS CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A TUTT CELL TO
THE NORTHWEST, WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES OF APPROXIMATELY 10
TO 20 KNOTS. THERE IS GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD, BUT IT IS RESTRICTED TO THE WEST. TS 14W IS TRACKING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. THE STR OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY
STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH TAU 72. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (AT
LEAST 30 DEGREES CELSIUS) WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE ALONG THE TRACK. AS
THE INFLUENCE OF THE TUTT CELL DIMINISHES IN THE COMING DAYS, THE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE FOR
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, SO THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 72.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, THE STR WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND ALLOW TS 14W TO
RECURVE TOWARD JAPAN. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, ALONG WITH
AN ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WILL ALLOW TS 14W TO INTENSIFY
TO 90 KNOTS BY TAU 96. AT THIS EXTENDED RANGE, DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN POORER AGREEMENT, WITH SIGNIFICANT ALONG-TRACK AND
CROSS-TRACK ERRORS. HOWEVER, AN EVENTUAL RECURVE SCENARIO IS
BECOMING MORE LIKELY. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
LATTER PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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