Tropical Storm NURI Advisory so., 13.06.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (NURI) WARNING
NR 005//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W (NURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 228 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A REGION OF DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED
TO THE SOUTHWEST. A 122245Z MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS
FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. BASED ON THE MSI AND A
PARTIAL 130032Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KTS BASED
ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0-2.5 (30-
35 KTS) BY PGTW/RJTD/RCTP, AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF
T2.2 (32 KTS), AND THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT DATA WHICH SHOWED 25-29
KT WINDS IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS
MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (30-
31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES
TO SHOW STRONG EQUATORWARD AND LIMITED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. OVERALL,
THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MODERATELY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS TD
02W TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC
REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 02W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY IN THE NEAR TERM. AFTER
TAU 12, INCREASING VWS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE STORM AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL SOUTHWEST OF
HONG KONG AROUND TAU 24 AND FRICTIONAL LAND EFFECTS WILL CAUSE THE
SYSTEM TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT TRANSITS INLAND. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 70 NM AT
TAU 36, PLACING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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