MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (NURI) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W (NURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 228 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A REGION OF DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST. A 122245Z MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. BASED ON THE MSI AND A PARTIAL 130032Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KTS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0-2.5 (30- 35 KTS) BY PGTW/RJTD/RCTP, AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T2.2 (32 KTS), AND THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT DATA WHICH SHOWED 25-29 KT WINDS IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (30- 31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG EQUATORWARD AND LIMITED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. OVERALL, THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MODERATELY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS TD 02W TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TD 02W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY IN THE NEAR TERM. AFTER TAU 12, INCREASING VWS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE STORM AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG AROUND TAU 24 AND FRICTIONAL LAND EFFECTS WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT TRANSITS INLAND. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 70 NM AT TAU 36, PLACING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.// NNNN NNNN