Tropical Storm HAISHEN Advisory nie., 06.09.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (HAISHEN)
WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 11W (HAISHEN), 149 NM NORTHEAST OF KADENA AB,
OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEMS EYE HAS BECOME MORE RAGGED AND ELONGATED. FEEDER BANDS
CONTINUE TO LOOSEN AND CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO WARM. FURTHERMORE, THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT CONTINUES TO SHEAR AND ERODE. THE INITIAL
POSITION
IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE WITH AN
AVERAGE DIAMETER OF 15 NM, ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY FOR TILT AND LINED UP
WITH A
MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 052020Z COLOR 37GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF
95 KTS IS BASED ON THE CONSTRAINED DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW OF
4.5/5.0
WHICH CONTINUES TO REFLECT A WEAKENING TREND. ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO HAVE STRONG DUEL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT
HAS BEEN FURTHER SHEARED BY THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE
WEST. ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) ALSO REMAIN WARM AT
29-30C. HOWEVER, RELATIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS INCREASED TO
25-
30 KTS AND OFFSETS THE WARM SSTS AND ROBUST OUTFLOW CHANNELS. THE
CYCLONE IS TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST, ANCHORED EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HOKKAIDO,
JAPAN.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
FROM THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY HAISHEN WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST, PASSING TO THE WEST OF KYUSHU, CROSS THE
KOREA STRAIT, MAKE LANDFALL AFTER TAU 24 JUST WEST OF BUSAN, SOUTH
KOREA, THEN DRAG NORTHWARD ALONG THE RUGGED MOUNTAIN RANGES OF THE
KOREAN PENINSULA. INCREASING VWS, COOLING SSTS, THEN LAND
INTERACTION
WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 75 KTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL
THEN
RAPIDLY DOWN TO 30KTS BY TAU 48 AFTER IT CROSSES NORTH KOREA INTO
MANCHURIA. CONCURRENTLY, TY HAISHEN WILL COMMENCE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BY TAU 24 AS IT ENTERS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, TRANSFORMING
TO A
COLD-CORE LOW BY TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF AFUM, EXTREME RIGHT-OF-TRACK OUTLIER. THE TIGHT
AGREEMENT OVERALL IN NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK THAT IS LAID JUST LEFT OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS TO
OFFSET AFUM.//
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