MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (KAJIKI) WARNING NR 02// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (KAJIKI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 58 NM WEST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ANIMATED EIR LOOP WITH LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE ELONGATED NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED ON 26-27 KNOT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND IS SUPPORTED BY MINIMAL DEGRADATION IN SYSTEM STRUCTURE SINCE LANDFALL. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND HAS GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVERLAND AND BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH THE RUGGED MOUNTAIN TERRAIN OF VIETNAM AND LAOS. TD 16W IS TRACKING SOUTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS CHANGED TO INCLUDE THE SYSTEM RECURVING TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT DISSIPATES OF EASTERN INDOCHINA. B. TD 16W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING A TURN BACK TO THE NORTHEAST. AS THE SYSTEM IS WEAKENED BY THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF INDOCHINA AND IMPACTED BY INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, IT WILL BEGIN TO DE-COUPLE. THE LLCC IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE BACK TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. HOWEVER, THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AROUND TAU 36 PRIOR TO REACHING THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BEFORE TURNING BACK TO THE NORTHEAST. THE WEAKENED AND DECOUPLED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM IS CAUSING MANY OF THE GLOBAL MODEL TRACKERS TO PRODUCE ERRATIC TRACK SOLUTIONS AFTER TAUS 6-12 (MODEL DEPENDENT) CAUSING A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL THE CONSENSUS WITH OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY.// NNNN NNNN