MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (PEIPAH) WARNING NR 29// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (PEIPAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 724 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS REMAINED BROAD WHILE THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED BUT IS STILL SHALLOW AND POORLY ORGANIZED. THE 092248Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BROAD AREA OF THE LLCC AND DEPICTS SEVERAL FRAGMENTED BANDS CURVED ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI ANIMATION AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE SSMIS IMAGE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM KNES AND REFLECTS THE OVERALL WEAKENED STATE OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 05W REMAINS IN A HARSH ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH (20-30 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, A GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO PROVIDE VENTILATION TO THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE REMAINS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT WHICH HAS LED TO THE RECENT QUASI-STATIONARY TYPE MOTION. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. BEST TRACK POSITIONS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED BASED ON A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATING A BROAD AND POORLY DEFINED LLCC. THE UPDATED BEST TRACK POSITIONS BETTER REFLECT THE QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. B. TD PEIPAH WILL REMAIN IN THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AS IT BEGINS TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE WEAKNESS IN THE STR. AS THE HIGH VWS PERSISTS, THE SYSTEM MAY STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS IT MAKES LANDFALL ACROSS THE PHILIPPINES. THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT THE HIGH SHEAR WILL OFFSET THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND CAUSE AN EARLY DISSIPATION OVER WATER. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO TIGHTER AGREEMENT AND CONTINUES TO INDICATE A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK; HOWEVER, VARIATIONS IN THE FORWARD TRANSLATION SPEED REMAIN. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI- MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.// NNNN NNNN