MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 017// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 193 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THAT THE PREVIOUS EYE HAS SLOWLY FILLED WITH CONVECTION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102 KTS) FROM PGTW, A 222124Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 120 KTS, AND AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF 115 KTS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 120 KTS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. DESPITE BEING LOCATED IN A REGION OF LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST), TY 22W HAS BEGUN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT TRANSITS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. AROUND TAU 12, TY 22W BEGINS TO ROUND THE STR AXIS, RECURVING TO A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. AS THE SYSTEM CRESTS THE AXIS, INTERACTION WITH THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL CAUSE TY 22W TO WEAKEN, GRADUALLY AT FIRST THEN MORE RAPIDLY, AS VWS VALUES QUICKLY INCREASE TO GREATER THAN 20 KTS. AROUND TAU 48, TY 22W WILL BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT), COMPLETING ETT BY TAU 72. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WAS PLACED SLIGHTLY EAST AND FASTER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS AS THE TRACK ROUNDS THE STR. ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER THE RECURVE AROUND TAU 24, THE BULK OF THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OUTLIERS TO THE SOUTHEAST (NAVGEM AND JGSM) AND NORTHWEST (ECMWF). AS THE EFFECTS OF THESE SOLUTIONS OFFSET EACH OTHER, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WAS LAID CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.// NNNN NNNN