MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING NR 01// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 05W (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 377 NM NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED, CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION FEATURE PRESENT IN 080140Z ASCAT-C DATA, AS WELL AS THE FORMATIVE BANDING THAT APPEARS TO WRAP INTO A LLCC IN A 080426Z GMI 37GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS PLACED SIGHTLY BELOW A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.0 (25 KTS) BASED ON THE PRESENCE OF 15-20 KTS WINDS PRESENT IN THE 080140Z ASCAT-C DATA, AS WELL AS DATA FROM A 080047Z ASCAT-B PASS. THE WIND FIELD IS BROAD WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KTS DISPLACED > 100 KTS FROM THE SYSTEM CENTER TO THE SOUTHEAST. TD 05W IS TRACKING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE EAST AND THROUGH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). THE SYSTEM IS UNDER SUPPORTIVE UPPER LEVEL EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW WITH THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. B. TD 05W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 36. DURING THIS TIME THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH AN INTENSITY OF 40 KTS BY TAU 24 WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO 45 KTS BY TAU 36 DUE TO THE CONTINUED LOW VWS AND WARM SSTS. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL ROUND THE STR AND BEGIN A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK AS IT APPROACHES BUSAN, KOREA. INTENSIFICATION WILL SLOW DURING THIS PERIOD, REACHING A PEAK OF 50 KTS BY TAU 48, AS THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE FROM WARM (29 CELSIUS) AT TAU 36 TO COOL (24 CELSIUS) BY TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING OVER THE COOL WATERS OF THE KOREA STRAIT WHERE IT WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT APPROACHES DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, AND AHEAD OF AN INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN IT WILL BECOME FURTHER EMBEDDED IN THE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW. CONTINUED INTERACTION WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE DURING THIS TIME WILL LEAD TO THE SYSTEM COMPLETING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 76, WEST OF HOKKAIDO. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A CROSS TRACK SPREAD OF 37 NM AT TAU 24 INCREASING TO 100 NM BY TAU 48 AND ONLY DIVERGING SLIGHTLY THEREAFTER, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. // NNNN NNNN