MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (NOUL) WARNING NR 09// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (NOUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 48 NM EAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY INCLUDING 050016Z METOP-B IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE TIGHTLY-WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI, PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND 042003Z RAPIDSCAT WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONSENSUS DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS NOUL IS NOW LOCATED IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TS 06W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. SLOW MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER THE CONTINUED STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. AFTER TAU 24, THE STR IS FORECASTED TO BUILD AND REORIENT, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO ACCELERATE AND SHIFT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE VWS AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, ALLOWING TS 06W TO STEADILY INTENSIFY. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD INDICATING A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER YAP. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, NEAR THE CENTER OF THE PRIMARY MODEL GROUPING. C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 06W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE PHILIPPINE SEA. THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAINTAIN INTENSITY OR PERHAPS INTENSIFY FURTHER AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN GENERALLY FAVORABLE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CTCX AND GFDN, THE BULK OF MODEL TRACK FORECAST SOLUTIONS HAVE COME SLIGHTLY TOGETHER. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE CONTINUED MODEL SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST INTENSITY IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, JTWC FORECAST OVERALL CONFIDENCE LEVEL REMAINS LOW.// NNNN NNNN