Tropical Storm CHAN-HOM Advisory nie., 05.07.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING
NR 19//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (CHAN-HOM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 6 NM
WEST OF ROTA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MSI DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CENTRAL
CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE BANDING OBSCURING THE LLCC. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI, PGUA RADAR, AS WELL AS TIGHT GROUPING
SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON THE CURRENT STRUCTURE AND AN
OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING
AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 09W IS LOCATED IN AN
AREA OF LOW VWS AND GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS
ENHANCED BY THE TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST. TS 09W IS TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 09W WILL MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD
TRAJECTORY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR ENTRENCHED TO THE
NORTH. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS CHAN-HOM TRACKS ACROSS
THE MARIANAS ISLANDS. AFTERWARD, UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO IMPROVE, ALLOWING TS 09W TO FURTHER INTENSIFY LEADING TO A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 09W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DOMINANT STEERING STR. VWS AND UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD; HOWEVER, COOLER SST AND LOWER OHC VALUES WILL BEGIN
TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SLIGHT
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OF KADENA. THEREFORE, JTWC TRACK FORECAST HAS
SHIFTED THE TRACK SLIGHTLY IN THE EXTENDED TAUS TO REFLECT THIS
CHANGE. DUE TO THE TIGHT GROUPING AMONG AVAILABLE TRACKERS, THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVEL REMAINS HIGH, WHICH IS POSITIONED
CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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