Tropical Storm TWO Advisory pt., 14.04.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 568 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION,
SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF WARNINGS. RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY DEPICTS FORMATIVE, LIMITED BANDING OVER THE LLCC. UPPER-
LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR VALUES AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T1.5 TO
T2.0 (25 TO 30 KNOTS). TD 02W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE
ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TD 02W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE
CENTRAL PHILIPPINES AND WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
THE EASTERN VISAYAS NEAR TAU 24. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
DESPITE THE RECENT STRENGTHENING OF THE SYSTEM, THERE ARE KEY
FACTORS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT INTENSIFICATION, PRIMARILY, THE
PRESENCE OF DRY AIR OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, THE LACK OF A
WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION AND THE CYCLIC NATURE OF THE
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION (CURRENTLY, MSI INDICATES THE CLOUDS HAVE
ALREADY BEGUN TO WARM). TD 02W MAY INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO 30 KNOTS
BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OR REMAIN STEADY AT 25 KNOTS BUT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY PRIOR TO WEAKENING AND
DISSIPATING OVER THE CENTRAL PHILLIPINES AFTER TAU 24. THE REMNANTS
ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AFTER
TAU 48 BUT ARE NOT FORECAST TO REGENERATE DUE TO INCREASING
NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.//
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