Tropical Storm KAMMURI Advisory nie., 28.09.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 17W (KAMMURI) WARNING
NR 15//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 17W (KAMMURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A BROAD, PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION, WHICH
IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP AND A 272306Z SSMIS PARTIAL IMAGE.
MICROWAVE IMAGES OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP
CONVECTION ON THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM ONLY, WITH LIMITED
BANDING ABOUT THE LLCC, VISIBLE IN THE MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN LOWERED DUE TO DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL
AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH (25 TO 50 KNOTS), SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR REGARDLESS OF THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW  DUE TO THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH. TS 17W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 17W IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT)
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES AND THE FRONTAL ZONE, LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
AS TS 17W CONTINUES TO ROUND THE STR AXIS, IT WILL FURTHER
ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT BECOMES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. TS KAMMURI WILL COMPLETE
ETT BY TAU 48 AS IT IS FORECAST TO GAIN MORE CHARACTERISTICS OF A
DEEP COLD-CORE LOW. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK, WHICH IS
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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