MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TWENTYSIX) WARNING NR 02// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TWENTYSIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 343 NM SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LIMITED AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION LOCATED ON THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN 182305Z 91 GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI AGENCY SATELLITE FIXES ON THE EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS) FROM KNES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (20-25 KNOTS) SOUTH-EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WHICH IS CAUSING THE CONVECTION TO BE DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST. TD 26W IS TRACKING THROUGH AN AREA OF WARM (30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS OF TD 26W REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF OUTFLOW FROM TY 25W, PREVENTING TD 26W FROM ESTABLISHING OUTFLOW CHANNELS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W HAS NOT CHANGED HOWEVER, THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT JTWC STANDARD PRACTICE OF DISSIPATING SYSTEMS THAT ARE BEING ABSORBED BY LARGER SYSTEMS. B. TD 26W IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES AROUND TAU 12, TRANSIT ACROSS THE PHILIPPINES, AND TRACK OUT INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN PRIOR TO TAU 36. THE SYSTEM WILL BRIEFLY INTENSIFY DESPITE A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT, ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FEEDING INTO THE CIRCULATION WILL ALLOW INTENSIFICATION WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AND THE SYSTEM TRACKING OVER LAND. AROUND TAU 24, AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE EASTERN PHILIPPINES, IT WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH TYPHOON 25W (LAN), EVENTUALLY BECOMING ABSORBED BY TY 25W BY TAU 48. THE FORECAST SHOWS THAT TD 26W WILL DISSIPATE AS IT IS ABSORBED BY 25W, HOWEVER, THE EXTENSIVE WIND FIELD OF 25W WILL PRODUCE A BROAD AREA OF 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF WHERE TD 26W IS DISSIPATING. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.// NNNN NNNN