Tropical Storm BUALOI Advisory pt., 25.10.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 555 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DECAYING
CONVECTION DISPLACED SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 242123Z SSMIS 89GHZ IMAGE REVEALS LOW-LEVEL BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC THAT IS NOW OBSCURED BY CONVECTION, LENDING
FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 75 KTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5
(77 KTS) FROM RJTD AND KNES, SLIGHTLY ABOVE A 242123Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF
70 KTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A DETERIORATING ENVIRONMENT WITH
STRONG (40 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) PARTIALLY OFFSET BY ROBUST
POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH. TY 22W IS TRACKING
POLEWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. WIND RADII HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED BASED ON ANALYSIS OF RECENT ASCAT IMAGERY.
   B. TY 22W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG MID-LATITUDE
RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 24 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL
CHARACTERISTICS AND BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. TY 22W WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS VWS INCREASES TO VERY
STRONG LEVELS (50-70 KNOTS). NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A 130NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 24, THEREFORE,
THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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