Tropical Storm KAJIKI Advisory wto., 03.09.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (KAJIKI)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (KAJIKI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
58 NM WEST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON THE ANIMATED EIR LOOP WITH LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE DUE TO
THE ELONGATED NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30
KNOTS IS BASED ON 26-27 KNOT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS TO THE NORTH OF
THE SYSTEM AND IS SUPPORTED BY MINIMAL DEGRADATION IN SYSTEM
STRUCTURE SINCE LANDFALL. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE
SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND HAS GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY OVERLAND AND BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH THE RUGGED
MOUNTAIN TERRAIN OF VIETNAM AND LAOS. TD 16W IS TRACKING SOUTHWEST
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS CHANGED TO INCLUDE THE SYSTEM
RECURVING TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT DISSIPATES OF EASTERN INDOCHINA.
   B. TD 16W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT
6 HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING A TURN BACK TO THE NORTHEAST. AS THE SYSTEM
IS WEAKENED BY THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF INDOCHINA AND IMPACTED BY
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, IT WILL BEGIN TO DE-COUPLE. THE LLCC
IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE BACK TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA. HOWEVER, THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AROUND TAU 36 PRIOR TO REACHING THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BEFORE TURNING BACK TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE WEAKENED AND DECOUPLED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM IS
CAUSING MANY OF THE GLOBAL MODEL TRACKERS TO PRODUCE ERRATIC TRACK
SOLUTIONS AFTER TAUS 6-12 (MODEL DEPENDENT) CAUSING A HIGH DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED
NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL THE CONSENSUS WITH OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE DUE
TO THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY.//
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