Tropical Storm LEKIMA Advisory nie., 11.08.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR
29//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 153 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SHANGHAI, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE EAST AND NORTH QUADRANTS. A
102256Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS BROAD, FRAGMENTED BANDING WRAPPING
AROUND THE BROAD LLCC. OVERALL, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS
BASED ON THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KNOTS) AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ENHANCED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST. THEREFORE,
INTERACTION WITH LAND AND FRICTIONAL EFFECTS ARE THE PRIMARY
WEAKENING MECHANISM. TS 10W IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE
EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 10W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN COAST OF CHINA THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE STR. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER
THE EASTERN COAST OF CHINA. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. AT TAU 48, TS 10W IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DUE TO
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30-40 KNOTS) AS IT TRACKS CLOSE TO
THE UPPER-LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
NORTHEAST CHINA.//
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