MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W (HAIMA) WARNING NR 22// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON 25W (HAIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 232 NM NORTH OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM RJTD AND PGTW AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE PHILIPPINES. THE INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM THE SAME REPORTING AGENCIES AS WELL AS A RECENT AUTOMATED SATELLITE INTENSITY CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 94 KNOTS FROM CIMSS. TY 25W HAS EMERGED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS UNDER THE CONTINUED STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST. CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS BEEN DISRUPTED DUE TO LAND INTERACTION, BUT DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS BEGUN TO REDEVELOP IN THE PAST FEW HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES INCREASING EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN. B. TY 25W IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD, MAKING LANDFALL TO THE EAST OF HONG KONG BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL AS THE SYSTEM CONTENDS WITH MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING ALONG-TRACK OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. TY 25W WILL STEADILY DISSIPATE AS IT CONTINUES TRACKING ALONG THE STEERING RIDGE PERIPHERY OVER LAND THROUGH TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL FORECAST TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT, AND THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.// NNNN NNNN