MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 01// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 14W (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 399 NM SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE CENTER. MSI NOW SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE CENTER AND EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLCC. A 020751Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE REVEALS A LINEAR BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE CURVED BANDING, HOWEVER, THE 020751Z SSMIS WIND PRODUCT INDICATES A SMALL CORE OF 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS. THEREFORE, THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON THE LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE AND SSMIS WIND PRODUCT. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE WELL-DEFINED CENTER AND LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY- FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE, WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD OUTFLOW INTO A TUTT CELL TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. TD 14W IS EMBEDDED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL STR, WHICH EXTENDS OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES OF THE SYSTEM. THIS IS LEADING TO A SLOW WESTWARD TRACK. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. B. TD 14W IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL STR. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEGRADE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, THEREFORE, TD 14W SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.// NNNN NNNN